Analysis of Uganda’s agriculture sector performance for a USAID Agriculture Sector Leadership program

Agriculture Sector Leadership program
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Situation

After many years of funding agriculture programs in Uganda by various bilateral and multilateral donors and private foundations, USAID’s Feed the Future Enabling Environment for Agriculture Activity observed a reluctance on the part of the government and some private sector stakeholders to take actions that would accelerate the agriculture sector's performance. In response, USAID designed a leadership program—and sought expert input for a provocative analysis of sector performance over the past 50 years, coupled with an ambitious target-setting exercise for the next 5-10 years.

The analysis, findings, and recommendations were required to provide input in the design of an Agriculture Sector Leadership (LEAD) program. LEAD program had a mandate to address ecosystem constraints with tangible outcomes—and to improve the longterm performance of Uganda's agriculture sector. The program's participants were a high-level, multidisciplinary group of professionals, some of the country’s most trusted and well-known leaders, committed to helping Uganda achieve its full agricultural potential.

Industries
Strategy, Data & Insights
Smallholder Agriculture Development
Public Policy Improvement
Impact Evaluation & Learning
Program Design & Business Development
Agribusiness & Food Systems
Climate Action
Gender Good Approaches
Youth Economic Opportunity
Green Economic Growth & Trade
Ecosystem Development
Engagement

ORI applied its deep understanding and context of Uganda’s and Africa’s agriculture sector to analyze and describe past and present key performance indicators. It assessed Uganda’s progress against each indicator for crops, livestock, aquaculture, inputs, policy, research, gender, access to finance, trade, markets, and climate change. Common myths about Uganda’s agriculture sector were identified and challenged.

In delivering this assignment, ORI:

  • Applied rigorous evidence-based analysis of Uganda’s agriculture sector performance over the past 50 years and made detailed comparisons with identified “benchmark” countries.
  • Carried out detailed data collection and analysis, and brought practical experience and support to several issues during these engagements.
  • Framed and described key performance indicators and assessed Uganda’s progress against them for crops, livestock, aquaculture, inputs, policy, research, gender, access to finance, trade, markets, and climate change.
  • Ranked Uganda’s position on each of the indicators against “benchmark” countries that were essentially at the same level of development 50 years ago.
  • Identified and challenged common myths about Uganda’s agriculture sector; for example, Ugandan soils are fertile, do not need fertilizer, and can grow just about everything you throw at it…; Crops do not require irrigation because it rains all the time in Uganda…; Uganda is/has the potential to be the breadbasket of East Africa…
  • Derived insights and recommendations for how Uganda can transform its agricultural sector.

 

The analysis showed that Uganda's agriculture sector has enormous unrealized potential. However, the sector’s performance has remained stagnant or declined for some industries, such as cotton, sorghum, and coffee. Urgent efforts were required to change the trendline and achieve the sector’s growth potential.

Outcomes
  • The study showed that Uganda had consistently performed poorly in key areas, particularly the use by farmers of productivity-enhancing inputs and investment in basic agro-infrastructure. As a result, the country continued to experience sub-optimal yields in both food crops and traditional cash crops.
  • High post-harvest losses had persisted across the sector and were linked to: low usage of inputs, insufficient mechanization, limited irrigation, and sub-optimal adoption of good agricultural practices and storage solutions.
  • Uganda had lagged behind its closest peers in several critical performance indicators: Fertilizer use—lowest in the world; mechanization—only 9 tractors per square kilometers vs. 24 in Tanzania and 29 in Kenya; access to credit—much less developed; pesticide/crop protection solutions—lack of supplier/poor product diversity; yields—extremely low, e.g., Robusta coffee (0.6 metric tons per hectare for Uganda vs. 2.5 metric tons per hectare for Vietnam).
  • The performance of smallholder female farmers was significantly lower than that of male farmers across all metrics.
  • Results: There had been a near-complete lack of progress in increasing the productivity of various agricultural products. For many crops, including millets, cotton, and sorghum, production had remained almost stagnant over the previous 50 years—a nearly unbelievable feat given the improvements in seed technology, crop science, and fertilizers, among others, since the 1960s.
  • ORI presented these findings, conclusions and recommendations at the high-level launch of an 18-month USAID/LEAD program. The presentation provoked participants to commit to sector leadership and dedicated problem-solving. The study established baseline metrics across key themes and assisted the leadership group in goal setting.
  • The Government of Uganda saw the findings, conclusions and recommendations as fact-based baselines, and an opportunity for driving change. It made commitments—at the highest level of executive leadership—to support LEAD and to deliver its part in reforming the sector for longterm transformation. The president was the chief guest at the program's launch.
  • LEAD program has been instrumental in reversing the trend of agricultural sector stagnation, particularly for selected industries and value chains. As an example, for 50 years (1965-2015), the highest coffee exports from Uganda were recorded at 254,000 metric tons in FY 1996/97. However, since 2016, exports have exceeded this record, increasing to 390,000 metric tons in FY2020/21 and reaching 462,000 metric tons in FY2024/25. If current efforts are maintained, this upward trend is expected to continue in the years ahead.
  • The study's findings have been widely cited and have played a role in shaping policies and influencing decisions to improve Uganda’s agriculture sector performance. As an example, see slide 9: https://www.theigc.org/sites/default/files/2021/09/01_Fowler_Rauschendorfer_MoFPED_Agro-industrialisation.pdf